November 19, 2003
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-- Help Wanted! Jobs are on the way.
-- Perfect Labor Storm Alerts # 31 to #35
-- Mark December 11, 2003 on your calender
-- Get Certified in CriteriaOne(r) Competency Modeling and Job Benchmarking
-- By Invitation Only - December 9, 2004 - An Employee Incentive System that Finally Works
-- Take the mystery out of employee motivation >>>>>>
-- Interview Generator CD-ROM
-- PA Chamber 2004 Human Resources Conference - December 2, 2003
-- Employee Evaluations Made Easy!
-- Manager's Pocket Guide to Emotional Intelligence

Greetings!

Welcome to this week's issue of The Total View. 147,000 new jobs created during the first seven months of 2003 or 93,000 jobs lost? The government and media would have you believe our economy lost jobs. But an alternative survey suggests that the jobless recovery is over and >>>>> Read the real story below.

The Total View is written and published each Wednesday by Ira S. Wolfe, founder of Success Performance Solutions. (Yes, Ira writes every article, every week!)

Ira S. Wolfe ©2003 - All Rights Reserved. Reprints and other distribution by permission only.

To learn more about Success Performance Solutions or read back issues of The Total View, visit our website at www.super- solutions.com.

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Help Wanted! Jobs are on the way.
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Businesses added over 250,000 new jobs beginning in September 2003. Demand is accelerating and more jobs are on the way. That is what we hear anyway from the government and reported by the media.

The monthly reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the establishment survey. It measures employment based on a survey of business establishments. According to the Employment Policy Foundation, a workforce think-tank, "this survey does not include employment by individuals who are self- employed, work on farms or are contract workers. Moreover, BLS often falls behind in the comprehensiveness of its establishment survey because many new businesses are being formed that are not yet on the survey list. Consequently, jobs being created by new startups may be underestimated in the establishment survey."

The nation's employment level as measured by the household survey, however, rose to 137.6 million-higher than in 5 of the first 7 months of 2003. The household survey data comes directly from workers. The current level is 99.9 percent of the March 2001 pre-recession peak and is 101.4 percent of the January 2002 employment.  This increase of 147,000 in the government's household survey contrasted with a decline of 93,000 in the establishment survey.

Since the end of the recession in 2001, the government's household survey has shown an increase in employment of 1.40 million, while the establishment survey has shown a decline of 1.12 million jobs. There is reason to believe that changes in the makeup of the workforce and the explosive growth of small businesses have resulted in the household survey being a more accurate picture of the workforce. In which case, the Perfect Labor Storm is BACK.

A hiring rebound will catch many organizations completely off-guard. The quality of the labor pool is weak and the number of currently employed ready to job-hop has been estimated to be from 4 to 8 out of 10 workers as soon as the economy picks up.

Why the discrepancy between what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports and what is actually happening? The establishment survey fails to capture a significant portion of the labor force. Segments of the population who are working, but excluded from the establishment survey are increasing. The number of self- employed individuals has been rising - 232,000 in August for a total increase of 473,000 since May 2003. And more employees have moved outside of traditional employment roles into contract positions.

So which survey do you believe? Suppose the BLS surveys are correct and millions of workers are just waiting to be hired and re-hired. That's good news.

But what if the household survey is correct? Despite warnings that a severe skills shortage is going to hit employers before the end of this decade, studies show that many organizations are not acting on a critical need to develop managerial bench strength.

Only 29 percent of 428 HR professionals polled this year have implemented succession planning. Nearly a third say their organizations aren't doing anything to prepare for the impending wave of retiring older workers and job hoppers. (Source: HR Magazine, November 2003)

Ninety-four percent of 200 HR professionals surveyed by DBM say their organizations have not yet adequately prepared younger workers to step into senior leadership positions. (Source: HR Magazine, November 2003)

The Perfect Labor Storm is coming. Is your workforce ready?

CriteriaOne Competency Modeling is the complete solution for employee selection and succession planning. Click here to learn more.

Perfect Labor Storm Alerts # 31 to #35
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Fact #31