Avian Flu Pandemic and Worker Absenteeism

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Welcome to the June 7, 2006 issue of The Total View

Published by Success Performance Solutions, Written by Ira S. Wolfe

Visit our Human Resources Blog and Perfect Labor Storm Blog where we can post daily (and more often) human resource updates, news, and Perfect Labor Storm facts.

What's Inside:

1. How Prepared Are You if 40 Percent of Your Workers Don't Show Up for Work?

2. Perfect Labor Storm Alerts #541 to #542

3. Executive Clues

4. Quotes from Hire Authorities

5. Managers vs. Leaders

6. Why Are So Many Employees Avoiding Vacations?

Tune in to PA Cable Network (PCN) on June 7 at 7:00 P.M. for the PCN LIVE Call In Program. The topic: What If....avian flu hits PA? Featured guests will be B2B managing editor Ted Byrne and contributing columnists Ira Wolfe. Visit PCN cable to determine your local PCN channel and for repeat broadcasts.

1. How Prepared Are You If 40 Percent of Your Workers Don't Show Up for Work?

Imagine a time in the not too distant future when forty percent of your workforce calls in sick. I’m not just talking about a day or a week when you are short-staffed. I’m talking weeks, maybe months. And if you think you’ll just call the local staffing agency, “fuggedaboutit.”

Far-fetched? Hardly, if you can believe the experts who are predicting the next influenza pandemic.

Until just a few weeks ago, I like many of you probably didn’t pay too much attention to the occasional stories about avian flu outbreaks in Indonesia, Vietnam and China. But then I was called to be a panelist on a live statewide call-in show. The topic: “Bird Flu Outlook and the Economy.”

I wasn’t sure why I was asked to speak on the bird flu – and even less sure why I said yes! But I did accept and immediately Googled avian flu pandemic.

It didn’t take me but a few clicks to learn that the workforce fallout that will be created by a severe pandemic will make The Perfect Labor Storm look like a summer shower… and that grabbed my interest.

What makes this flu so dangerous? According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 5 to 20 percent of the population catches the seasonal flu each year in the United States, and roughly 36,000 die from it each year.

But this flu should it eventually jump from bird to human will resemble the 1918-1919 flu pandemic that reportedly killed nearly 50 million worldwide, nearly 500,000 in the United States alone. An estimated 25 to 30 percent of the world’s population became ill, killing over 10 percent of all those who became sick.

By comparison, a severe pandemic today, similar to the 1918-1919 episode, could infect 90 million people in the United States and cause the deaths of more than 2 million. A mild pandemic that resembled the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks could infect 75 million people and cause 100,000 deaths in the United States.

A number of modern day factors complicates effective solutions. Although nearly 90 years have passed since the “great influenza,” we still don’t have a universal vaccine. That means at best a vaccine might – and I emphasize might – be available for the most high-risk people in 6 to 9 months AFTER the virus has been identified. Based on current manufacturing processes and capacity, a mere 20 million dosages might be available, or just enough to vaccinate about 7 percent of the population

What that means is we will have a lot of sick workers, family, and neighbors. The most severely affected workplaces would be health care related, especially hospitals and doctor’s offices. In fact, many predict that a severe pandemic could stretch our health care system to the point of collapse. Why? Our health care system lacks “surge capacity.” Emergency rooms, intensive care units and physician practices would be overrun, partly due to sick patients and complicated by absent sick workers. Antibiotics will be in short supply (although they are ineffective against viruses). The demand for hospital beds will increase three times beyond current capacity and seven times for intensive care beds. By one estimate, we would need over 700,000 mechanical respirators to help sick patients breathe; we currently have 100,000 available. Current federal appropriations have authorized 4,000 additional ventilators be added to the strategic stockpile, a mere dent in solving the problem.

Other workers, who were not sick, might need to stay home to care for sick children and parents. Still others may just stay home because of fear.

For non-health care related workplaces, similar scenarios will unfold. In addition to high rates of absenteeism, just-in-time deliveries will come to a screeching halt if your suppliers’ workers are out of work or sick FedEx or UPS drivers can’t deliver.

The cascading effect goes on and on but that brings me back to the beginning: how would you run your business if 40 percent of your workforce couldn’t come to work?

How prepared are we? What I am constantly reminded of while reading articles and listening to interviews is that we are well overdue for a severe pandemic and tragically under-prepared.

I’d highly recommend two readings. The first is The Great Influenza by
John Barry. You can purchase this at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Borders.

The second is a recent assessment of the possible economic effects of an avian flu pandemic prepared by the Congressional Budget Office. Download the CBO pdf report on Pandemic Flu.

Finally, please email me your comments. I’d like to hear other opinions and stories about what is going on in your workplaces.

2. Perfect Labor Storm Alerts # 541 to 542

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Fact #541: People with chronic conditions do not fare well in the work force. The experience of people with common chronic conditions in the labor force is generally different from that of their contemporaries who do not have chronic conditions. Compared to those who do not have chronic conditions, those with chronic conditions, they generally earn less, miss more work, and are more likely to retire early. (Source: National Society on an Aging Society)

Fact #542: Diabetes affects just 6 percent of the U.S. population—16 million people—but more than 1 of every 10 U.S. health care dollars is spent on diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is increasing. By 2025, over 20 million Americans are expected to have diabetes. The population with diabetes uses more health care services and is less productive than the population without diabetes. (Source: AHCPR Research on Diabetes Care, 1999)

Don't be caught in storm without all the facts. "The Perfect Labor Storm Fact Book: Why Worker Shortages Won't Go Away" is a must-read leading edge forecast that predicts workforce trends for decades to come. Order your copy today - Only $7.95.

3. Executive Clues

There are some positions within organizations that are considered to be executive level positions that require the individual to effectively "run the unit or the business" just as someone would run a small business. The individual is ultimately responsible for managing various components of the business or business unit such as dealing with the financial objectives, marketing, sales and management of employees to meet business objectives. This report is designed to help that individual understand the "blind spots" they may have in various components of their role and how to potentially bridge the gap between their strengths and those that are necessary for effectively handling a particular area of the business. The report covers areas such as "Managing Employees" and "Planning and Vision"

Learn more about Executive Clues, part of the Clues Suite of Assessments.

4. Quotes from Hire Authorities

Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.
Steve Jobs

5. Managers vs. Leaders

You may think of the words “manager” and “leader” as two concepts representing opposite ends of a continuum. The term manager typifies the more structured, controlled, analytical, orderly, and rule-oriented end of the continuum. The leader end of the continuum connotes a more experimental, visionary, unstructured, flexible, and impassioned side. Managers and leaders are not the same. They think differently internally, and behave differently externally.

Read more about the difference between managers and leaders.

6. Why Are So Many Employees Avoiding Vacations?
From Sunday News, May 28. 2006

The only employee in an administrative department at a Lancaster County health care provider, she has been on the job for nearly 15 years and has earned several weeks vacation. But she feels she can only take a few days off here and there and can't leave for any extended period of time. "I can't, because I don't know what kind of mess I would come back to,'' said the woman, in her late 40s, who requested anonymity. She said she suffers from migraine headaches from time to time, which she believes is due to stress. The woman's dilemma is one of many that Lancaster workplace expert Ira Wolfe has encountered in his job, helping employers with their work force issues.