Welcome to the January 4, 2006 issue of The Total View

Published by Success Performance Solutions, Written by Ira S. Wolfe

Visit our Human Resources Blog and Perfect Labor Storm Blog where we can post daily (and more often) human resource updates, news, and Perfect Labor Storm facts. 

What's Inside:

1.     2006: A Ticking Workforce Timebomb?

Let the celebration begin. Hayley Mills, Sally Fields and Patty Duke turn 60 this year. So do Presidents Bush and Clinton, Donald Trump and Cher. Joining them will be the front edge of millions of aging Boomers who are anticipated to retire or change careers in unprecedented numbers. This is the leading edge of a series of events and workforce trends of The Perfect Labor Storm.

I recall six years ago when I first warned about skilled worker shortages. I received many comments like “interesting” and “thought-provoking but many executives and business owners called me a pessimist and chose to blow off the warning as a scare tactic. Today, stories about skilled worker shortages is front-page news and the time to fill open critical positions is growing longer and longer. “The Perfect Labor Storm is no longer just a forecast for the future but an imminent threat for the present.

Below are a few stories I believe will dominate the news in 2006 and beyond.

A Shrinking Workforce
The number of U.S. workers between ages 55 and 64 will grow 51 percent to 25 million by 2012, meaning the fastest-growing portion of the work force is the one at most risk of retiring soon. At the same time, the number of workers between ages 35 and 44 is expected to shrink by 7 percent.

New Skills Required
While many workers continue to use skills learned in an Industrial age, consumer demands have changed. Jobs now require skills for service and knowledge, not manual labor. In 1955, 40.5 percent of the U.S. workforce was engaging in manufacturing, construction, and mining. By the end of 2005, those industries employed only 15.8 percent of the workforce. Service-producing industry sent paychecks to 41.8 percent of workers.

Is Education The Answer?
Many point to better education as the solution. But education has its own problems. Today's workforce is the most educated in the world. That is all about to change. U.S. high school students are getting their lunches eaten when it comes to math and science scores compared to the most advanced economies of Europe and Asia.

No Industry Left Behind
Nearly every industry is predicting severe employee shortages, including manufacturing. Despite over 2 million layoffs, 500,000 vacancies exist for manufacturing jobs. Why? The available worker, including the employed, doesn’t have the right skills. The same forecast holds for healthcare, construction and technology.

Ticking time bombs: health care and pensions
For the first time in history retirees are living longer after retirements then they worked for the company or paid into social security. Many organizations including the government are facing huge funding shortfalls. The rules about retirement haven’t kept up with life expectancy.

As a result, public pension and health benefits for the elderly are on track to double while at the same time the old-age dependency ratio (nonworking older person per workers) will double.

Living Longer Costs Money
The health care consumption level of a 70-year-old far exceeds the consumption level of a 30 year old. By one estimate, the average elderly American consumes 37 percent more than the average worker.

As a result, Americans will be expected to pay more for their own health care and more for their dependents through more out-of-pocket payments and increased tax bills required to fund public supported health care.

Consumer-Driven Health Care
Shifting responsibility for health care to the consumer may be the right thing to do but employers and the government are asking a lot when lay people are expected to shop for a provider, decide when to seek care, wait weeks or months to get an appointment, juggle the appointment time with the demands of working, and navigate a complex system of bills and payments.

At least 77 million people in the U.S. -- or two out of every five adults -- have a hard time paying for medical bills or have accrued debt as a result of health care expenses. Two-thirds of people, which includes many workers, with a medical bill or debt trouble go without care because of cost. Meanwhile their health deteriorates. Minor ailments become severe and chronic conditions evolve into acute emergencies.

More than Pocket Change
Losing experienced workers is only part of the problem. Replacing them comes with a high cost. At a time when the cost of doing business is rising and profits are squeezed, the average "cost-to-hire" and "time-to-fill" in 2005 was $7,123 and 37 days, respectively. The number goes up exponentially when recruiting and hiring knowledge workers. (Source: 2005 SHRM Human Capital Benchmarking Study)

This combination of an aging population and a shrinking workforce will increase the pressure to reduce pensions, delay retirement, increase outsourcing and open up immigration.

For more workforce facts and demographic trends

2.  Global Good Luck Traditions
(repeated for those who missed the December 28, 2005 issue)

The tradition of the New Year's Resolutions goes all the way back to 153 B.C. Janus, a mythical king of early Rome was placed at the head of the calendar.

The New Year has not always begun on January 1, and it doesn't begin on that date everywhere today. It begins on that date only for cultures that use a 365-day solar calendar. January 1 became the beginning of the New Year in 46 B.C., when Julius Caesar developed a calendar that would more accurately reflect the seasons than previous calendars had.

The Romans named the first month of the year after Janus, the god of beginnings and the guardian of doors and entrances. He was always depicted with two faces, one on the front of his head and one on the back. Thus he could look backward and forward at the same time. At midnight on December 31, the Romans imagined Janus looking back at the old year and forward to the new.

With New Year's upon us, here's a look at some of the good luck rituals from around the world. They are believed to bring good fortune and prosperity in the coming year.

AUSTRIA - The suckling pig is the symbol for good luck for the new year. It's served on a table decorated with tiny edible pigs. Dessert often consists of green peppermint ice cream in the shape of a four-leaf clover.

ENGLAND - The British place their fortunes for the coming year in the hands of their first guest. They believe the first visitor of each year should be male and bearing gifts. Traditional gifts are coal for the fire, a loaf for the table and a drink for the master. For good luck, the guest should enter through the front door and leave through the back. Guests who are empty-handed or unwanted are not allowed to enter first.

WALES - At the first toll of midnight, the back door is opened and then shut to release the old year and lock out all of its bad luck. Then at the twelfth stroke of the clock, the front door is opened and the New Year is welcomed with all of its luck.

HAITI - In Haiti, New Year's Day is a sign of the year to come. Haitians wear new clothing and exchange gifts in the hope that it will bode well for the new year.

SICILY - An old Sicilian tradition says good luck will come to those who eat lasagna on New Year's Day, but woe if you dine on macaroni, for any other noodle will bring bad luck.

SPAIN - In Spain, when the clock strikes midnight, the Spanish eat 12 grapes, one with every toll, to bring good luck for the 12 months ahead.

PERU - The Peruvian New Year's custom is a spin on the Spanish tradition of eating 12 grapes at the turn of the year. But in Peru, a 13th grape must be eaten to assure good luck.

GREECE - A special New Year's bread is baked with a coin buried in the dough. The first slice is for the Christ child, the second for the father of the household and the third slice is for the house. If the third slice holds the coin, spring will come early that year.

JAPAN - The Japanese decorate their homes in tribute to lucky gods. One tradition, kadomatsu, consists of a pine branch symbolizing longevity, a bamboo stalk symbolizing prosperity, and a plum blossom showing nobility.

CHINA - For the Chinese New Year, every front door is adorned with a fresh coat of red paint, red being a symbol of good luck and happiness. Although the whole family prepares a feast for the New Year, all knives are put away for 24 hours to keep anyone from cutting themselves, which is thought to cut the family's good luck for the next year.

NORWAY - Norwegians make rice pudding at New Year's and hide one whole almond within. Guaranteed wealth goes to the person whose serving holds the lucky almond.

UNITED STATES - The kiss shared at the stroke of midnight in the United States is derived from masked balls that have been common throughout history. As tradition has it, the masks symbolize evil spirits from the old year and the kiss is the purification into the new year.

Whatever your beliefs or nationality, resolve to make 2006 your best year ever.

3. Perfect Labor Storm Alerts # 491 to # 492

Don't miss day-to-day updates on Perfect Labor Storm. Save the Perfect Labor Storm blog to your favorites.

Fact #491: U.S. business and industry leaders estimate spending an average of $600 million per year on remedial reading, writing, and math skills training for employees. (Source: National Institute for Literacy, Literacy Skills for 21st Century America)

Fact #492: The health care industry estimates $73 billion per year of unnecessary health care expenses attributable to poor literacy. While the average American spent $5,440 for health care in 2002, the average health care cost for adults with low literacy skills was four times that amount, or $21,760. This may be due to the higher rate of hospitalization and the increased number of medication and treatment errors that they experience. (Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Statistics, 2004; Center for Health Care Strategies, Inc. Health Literacy and Understanding Medical Information Fact Sheet)

Don't be caught in storm without all the facts. "The Perfect Labor Storm Fact Book: Why Worker Shortages Won't Go Away" is a must-read leading edge forecast that predicts workforce trends for decades to come. Order your copy today - Only $7.95.

4.   Supervisory Skills Boot Camp begins February 2006

Ever since Success Performance Solutions introduced Managing to Excel in 2002, hundreds of Central PA supervisors and managers have been learning and developing proficiency in the twelve competencies that highly effective managers and supervisors have that average performers don't.

Success Performance Solutions will offer Managing to Excel workshops beginning in February 2006. Each workshop will be limited to 6 supervisors. Topics will include Settings Goals, Time Management, and Scheduling Work.

Read more about Managing to Excel.

To learn more about 2006 workshops, email Marilyn Walker.

Managing to Excel is also available for purchase by in-house trainers and human resource professionals. The per participant cost per program is as low as $20!

5. .  CriteriaOne Train-the-Trainer: Job Benchmarking and Certification

The next CriteriaOne Train-the-Trainer is scheduled for February 2 to 4, 2006 in Lancaster, PA. Learn to identify and assess essential core competencies, select the right psychometric assessments, and develop behavioral event interview guides in just 3 days.

Register for CriteriaOne Train-the-Trainer  today

6.  Excuses, Excuses, Excuses: For Not Delivering Excellent Customer Service...And What Should Happen!

This book is for any company, business, or organization that deals with customers and has a passionate desire to survive. We’ve all been customers ourselves, and we’re tired—tired of inadequate service, a lack of concern, and a take-it-or-leave-it attitude. We’re tired of being told everything under the sun except that which we long to hear, “How may I help you?” followed by the appropriate action. This book is about excuses we both hear and use for not giving excellent customer service and how to shoot those excuses down.

Order Excuses, Excuses, Excuses